Poker Strategy

What to Do When Variance Rears Its Ugly Head

If you play in a casino or poker room for any amount of time, you’ll likely be quickly introduced to variance. As the name suggest, variance is simply the phenomenon that for any event with an observable outcome, the results will vary.

Let’s say you flip a coin ten times. While unlikely, it’s entirely possible that all ten times it will be heads. The odds are 50/50 so you’d expect five heads and five tails, but the sample size (the number of times the coin is flipped) is only ten, which is very low and prone to wild swings, such as results of ten heads or ten tails. Those swings are variance.

If you flip that same coin 1,000,000 times, the results will be much more similar to what the math suggests, with a final tally of something close to 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. The larger the sample size, the more likely the results will be closer to what the mathematical odds say they should be.

Understanding and accepting that variance exists is pretty crucial for anyone who expects to spend a lot of time playing poker. Starting with the best hand in poker doesn’t mean you’ll end up with the winning hand. You’ll have frustrating nights that will drive you absolutely bonkers, where you have great hands but they keep getting beaten, over and over, by players with much worse hands.

It doesn’t mean that online poker is rigged. It simply means that one night of results isn’t enough to base any conclusion on. It’s too small a sample, too prone to variance. Because the variance is high due to a small sample size, you’re guaranteed to encounter some crazy, frustrating sessions that defy the odds.

All you can do is stick to your guns, and do what should be doing anyway. Read poker strategy books and review your play. Make sure you’re playing hands correctly and not letting the variance cause you to play badly or go on tilt.

If you’re a good player, and playing correctly, over time your results will reverse course. Poker is, at heart, a game of math, and your results will indicate that as your sample size increases. Your big hands will win more often than not. Your correct play will ultimately be rewarded as long as you stick to your guns.